What a consulting firm can genuinely forecast
Not everything in a consulting business is forecastable to the same degree, and treating it as if it were is what makes forecasts lose credibility. Committed backlog and recurring engagements can be projected with reasonable confidence. New logo revenue in a quarter cannot, and no model improves that much.
The productive approach is to forecast each layer separately and present them as separate layers: signed work, extensions with a history of renewing, weighted pipeline, and everything else. A leadership team that sees the four layers argues about the right one instead of about the total.
- Signed backlog projected month by month
- Extensions forecast from historical renewal rates
- Weighted pipeline shown separately, never merged in
- Explicit statement of what is not being forecast